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Part
VII-A: Dealing with Runs of Bad Luck
"Gambler's
Fallacy" is a term used to describe the belief that a certain trend
will continue just because that has been the experience in the past.
Some poker teachers and authors teach that this belief is correct and
that you should therefore respond to a string of bad luck hands by
tightening up on your play or folding down continuously until the
cards show you that the trend is breaking up. Other authorities
on the matter correctly point out the fact that since you can't
determine what will happen in the future by looking at what has
happened in the past in the case of a random series which does not
have the attribute of "memory",(such as the random series of cards
which are dealt in Texas Hold Em), then responding to bad luck in this
way will only your hurt your game in the long run. It would be
interesting to see the results of studies in which both methods of
response were tried.
My own
feelings about the matter are this: From the point of view of
experience, there seems to be something to the continuation of bad
luck trends that holds up in ways which seem to go beyond the simple
factor of one mathematical or theoretical perspective, such as the
correctness or incorrectness of "Gambler's Fallacy". I have just
seen too many players whittled down to a short stack through strangely
bad luck and then get beat out of their last 10$ when they are holding
aces against their opponent's 4,8 off suit, to think that there is not
something going on there other than the outcome of a random draw.
I have to
stress that as I say this, I
am not citing "Gambler's Fallacy" as my reasoning, or that non-memory
based trends tend to continue themselves, reduce themselves, or
increase themselves, simply because they have happened in the past.
I can not argue against the fact that "Gambler's Fallacy" is indeed in
itself false. I am only suggesting that the continuation of bad
luck trends may be affected or prolonged due other subtle factors
which people have not been able to as yet define. Testing random
strings of data produced by random number generators may not be an
effectively correct way to go about determining what is happening in
real money situations, because in the latter you don't have one
computer sitting there playing another computer, you have two or more
people playing against each other with a computer in between them.
Who can really say at this point weather or not people don't have the
ability to generate fields of bad luck as a result of the impact of
experiencing a string of bad luck draws which started out as an
independent phenomenon? If you factor into this the changes in
the attitudes and behavioral responses of the other players towards
the player who is having the bad luck, and other ways in which they
might be affecting probability fields, then you have a situation which
is quite different indeed from the laboratory, and beyond the confines
of one simple logical principle.
I am therefore leery
of the advice offered by
those authorities who often become incensed when it is suggested that
you should tighten up on your play or simply leave a room when you are
taking a beating by continuous and inordinately bad luck. If you
take the fact that the reason they do become incensed is because they
feel that those who say that you should tighten up or otherwise change
your playing methods, are incorrectly contradicting sound mathematical
principles, then at that the very least, choosing the other option,
which is just to get up and leave, can in no way hurt your game in the
long run. Since there is no reason to think that you are going
to suddenly make a huge windfall after experiencing a long run of bad
luck at a particular table, then what can it hurt to just get up and
leave after something like that, and make that your standard response?
If you are afraid that you are going to hurt your game by becoming too
tight and missing opportunities, then why not just leave?
So my own
advice in terms of dealing with these kinds of bad luck situations is
not to alter your playing style to adapt to it, but instead to choose
the only option which we can point out with certitude is the one that,
while perhaps not being helpful(maybe, maybe not), is the only one
which will definitely not be hurtful, and that is just to leave before
you go broke. Take a shower, read a book, shake it off, and come
back to play later on.
The other definitive
and really important thing I can say about these
types of situations is that many players, due the emotional impact of
having lost a lot of money in a short space of time, start to play
really bad after a long run of bad luck. They are so worn down,
frustrated, and angry that their attitude becomes "why not throw it
all away?" This is a big, big area to conquer when it comes to
the subject of self-mastery. You can not allow yourself to fall
into this attitude. If you started out in a room with 300$ and
lost 240$ it is better to leave with 60$ than it is to leave with
nothing. In the course of your poker career you have to learn to
fight for every little bit, and to conserve those resources which
still remain at your disposal. Later that same night, or the
next day, you might take 20$ of that 60$ you have left and use it to
win a tournament prize of 500$. You don't know. But you
will kill any chance you have of recovery if you allow your negative
emotions to get the best of you and fall into inferior and desperate
styles of play due to bad luck runs.
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